Tuesday night’s NBA slate features six games, but from a betting perspective, I am most interested in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers. Minnesota will look to pick up its third consecutive win. This is a letdown spot for the Timberwolves, so I’m curious to see how they perform, especially against an inferior opponent. One prop bet in this game has caught my attention. Let’s take a closer look at that and the rest of my picks for Tuesday....CONTINUE READING
Moody’s favorite plays for Tuesday
Anthony Edwards over 25.5 points. Edwards is coming off a suboptimal game against a stout Clippers defense, scoring 23 points on 8-of-18 shooting, and I see him being eager to bounce back. The Trail Blazers rank 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions also 30th in points per game allowed to shooting guards. Edwards has surpassed 25.5 points in six of his last 10 games. He only scored nine points against the Trail Blazers back on January 12. I don’t see history repeating itself on Tuesday night.
Jayson Tatum under 28.5 points. Over the last 15 games, the Nets rank 10th in defensive rating when playing on their home court. Tatum has gone under this line in four of his last five away games and in seven of his last 10 on the road. Although the Celtics are 8.5-point favorites, this game only has a point total of 227.5. The Nets have also done a pretty good job limiting power forwards this season.
Chet Holmgren over 14.5 points. The Magic have been stout defensively all season, but one plus for Holmgren is that this game has a narrow spread, implying a competitive game. Holmgren has surpassed this line in 13 of his last 20 games. It’s also worth mentioning that he has gone over this number in 68% of his 53 games this season. Holmgren scored 15 points against the Magic back on January 13.
Jalen Duren over 11.5 rebounds. This matchup is too good for prop bettors to pass up. The Lakers have not been great defensively as of late and rank 26th in rebounds per game allowed to centers this season. Duren has surpassed 11.5 rebounds in four of his last five game and seven of his last 10. Even though the Pistons are 10.5-point underdogs, this game should be closer than the line suggests.
Detroit Pistons +10.5 at Los Angeles Lakers. I’ll be candid; I’m not thrilled to lay double-digits with the Lakers, even though they are at home and are the superior team based on records. Los Angeles has struggled defensively and has also had trouble closing out games. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers have a worse defensive rating than the Pistons. Detroit is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games and 10-5 against the spread in its last 15 games against the Lakers.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets
7:30 p.m. Barclays Center, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 41-12 (25-26-2)
Nets: 21-31 (24-26-2)
Line: Celtics (-8.5) Total: 227.5
Money Line: Celtics (-375), Nets (+300)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 6.2, straight up 72%, 224.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Celtics: Kristaps Porzingis, (GTD – Back); Jaden Springer, (OUT – Ankle); Xavier Tillman, (OUT – Knee)
Nets: Cameron Johnson, (OUT – Thigh); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic
7:30 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 36-17 (32-20-1)
Magic: 29-24 (34-19-0)
Line: Thunder (-2.5) Total: 223.5
Money Line: Thunder (-140), Magic (+120)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 1.6, straight up 56%, 233.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Gordon Hayward, (OUT – Calf)
Magic: None reported
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 28-25 (24-28-1)
Bucks: 35-19 (21-33-0)
Line: Bucks (-8.5) Total: 222.5
Money Line: Heat (+270), Bucks (-340)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 7.4, straight up 75%, 229.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Duncan Robinson, (GTD – Shoulder); Jimmy Butler, (OUT – Personal); Terry Rozier, (OUT – Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT – Shoulder); Dru Smith, (OUT – Knee)
Bucks: Khris Middleton, (OUT – Ankle)
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns
10 p.m. Footprint Center, Phoenix
Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 30-22 (28-23-1)
Suns: 31-22 (22-30-1)
Line: Suns (-5.5) Total: 245.5
Money Line: Kings (+170), Suns (-200)
BPI Projection: Suns by 6.5, straight up 72%, 240.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Kings: Chris Duarte, (GTD – Ankle); Sasha Vezenkov, (OUT – Ankle)
Suns: Damion Lee, (OUT – Knee)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 37-16 (27-23-3)
Blazers: 15-37 (25-27-0)
Line: Timberwolves (-8.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (-375), Blazers (+300)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 10.1, straight up 82%, 223.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles)
Blazers: Anfernee Simons, (GTD – Ankle); Duop Reath, (GTD – Knee); Scoot Henderson, (GTD – Foot); Moses Brown, (OUT – Wrist); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT – Elbow); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT – Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT – Knee)
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers
10:30 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 8-44 (26-25-1)
Lakers: 28-26 (24-30-0)
Line: Lakers (-10.5) Total: 241.5
Money Line: Pistons (+400), Lakers (-525)
BPI Projection: Lakers by 8.5, straight up 77%, 238.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Evan Fournier, (GTD – Not Injury Related); Malachi Flynn, (GTD – Not Injury Related); Quentin Grimes, (OUT – Knee); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Ankle)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Achilles); LeBron James, (GTD – Ankle); Cam Reddish, (OUT – Ankle); Max Christie, (OUT – Ankle); Gabe Vincent, (OUT – Knee); Jarred Vanderbilt, (OUT – Foot)
